1. Field of the Invention
The present invention relates generally to four several fields: games, education, finance and modeling. More particularly, the present invention relates to a financial forecasting game and the financial methods and mathematical models elaborated therefore and the applications of those to the finance field. Concerning the games field, the present invention relates to games including means for processing electronic data in a game requiring strategy or problem solving by a participant. Concerning the education field, the present invention relates to the education and demonstration field for business or economics. Concerning the finance field, the present invention relates to trading, matching or bidding. Concerning the modeling field, the present invention relates to modeling by mathematical expression.
2. Related Art
Stock Market Games
Over the last years, the development of new information and communication technologies, and namely the Internet, has totally transformed the relationship between financial operators and customers. As financial information and services are now available online, stock market games are commonly used by financial operators to promote their commercial offers of trading services and investment products through remote communication systems.
These games are usually simulation games, namely portfolio management games. Players are taken into reality-based environments where they can make virtual investment decisions and measure their would-be performance. The main purpose of these games is educational, as lack of knowledge concerning market mechanisms and financial techniques is most always alleged when people explain why they are reluctant to become investors. By enabling users to discover and practise trading techniques without risking real money, financial operators expects some of them will eventually invest their money and become their customers.
The fact is that predicting market trends and building corresponding investment strategies is of a matter of knowledge and experience and not a matter of chance. Analysts comments, market reports, technical analysis or charts, namely, may be used for decision making.
In order to make them attractive, and not only educational, financial operators usually organise financial market games as competitions where top-ranked players win prizes. Players are given a virtual amount of capital to trade with. At the end of the competition duration—for instance after two weeks—, amounts of virtual capital are compared and the best performers—for instance the three first ones—win pre-announced prizes.
Organising a competition is an easy way for the game organiser to limit its own risks relative to prizes distribution. Amounts dedicated to prizes are fixed in advance, allocated to a pre-defined number of winners and/or divided among winners if needed. As prizes do not depend on market variations, the risk of the game organiser is fixed and limited.
But such financial games have limitations and drawbacks, and namely the following ones:                they require a real commitment. Players have to play every day and over a relatively long period, for instance two weeks before they know if they win. This namely is a major drawback in the Internet world where users expect everything to be fast.        they are more educational than fun. Therefore, they are definitely suitable for someone who is already motivated: for instance, someone who is almost decided to become an investor but still hesitates or someone who is decided to take a financial training. But they are not suitable to attract the attention of someone who had no previous motivation and their concept may even be deterrent for absolute beginners.        they are organised like competitions. Therefore, players win prizes not by direct reference to the market but by reference to other players. Namely, a player can perform well but never be rewarded because of better-ranked competitors. A bad performer can even be rewarded with a bad market performance as soon as others are worse players than him. This is due to the fact that gains are never triggered by market conditions exclusively, which is of course the case in the real market. This is a real paradox as those games claim to be close to the market reality for playing but have nothing in common with market rules anymore when it comes to gains.        moreover, the number of winners is defined in advance in the competition rule. Mathematically, the more players there are in the competition, the less chances there are for a individual player to win a prize. For an individual player, a competition almost stops to be attractive in terms of gains as soon as it becomes successful in terms of audience.        in addition, individual gains a winner can get from the game are not variable according to market evolutions. In real markets, value variations and volatility directly drive players strategies.        
By contrast, financial trading is not a matter of competition but a matter of individual anticipation. What is needed is a game which can enable players, not only to play but also to gain according to real market rules: individual gains which do not depend on the number of other players or winners but only on real markets evolutions. In other words, what is needed is a free game offer built as a real financial product offer wherein financial products would be distributed for free on a regular basis and give the right to a prize in the case of good market anticipation.
This is close to the definition of a financial option, but presently existing options have a far too limited leverage to be used as such financial products. Their cost is too high to be taken on by a game organiser in order to distribute them for free to the players. What is needed is a very high leverage new type of option which can both have a limited cost and, under specified conditions, give the right to high value prizes in the very short term.
What is further needed is a method of risk measurement and mathematical modeling which can enable the game organiser to estimate and pilot its costs relative to prizes.
What is also needed is a commercial method which can make the general public aware of the specificity of such a game offer: not another presently existing stock market competition but a game where you can make individual gains from the market for free.
Finance and Trading
Financial markets enable investors to invest in assets which can be more or less risky assets according to the risk exposure they choose and the anticipation on the future variation of the assets they make.
An investor who is ready to take more risks for higher expected pay offs can conduct different strategies in order to leverage its investment:                he can buy a listed asset with a high volatility. He will have to bring the total amount of money to be able to buy it, but the potential leverage comes from the fact that, because of the volatility, there are more chances he gets a higher variation in quotations, i.e. a higher gain or a higher loss,        he can buy a futures or forward contract. The high potential leverage comes from the fact he will have to bring immediately only a fraction of the total value of the underlying asset to buy it (for instance 20%) whereas he can expect a future gain or loss relative to the total value of the underlying asset,        he can buy an option contract or warrant. The higher potential leverage comes from the fact he doesn't purchase the underlying asset, but only the right to buy it or sell it according to predefined contract terms. The purchase price is therefore far lower, as the right can only be exercised under specified conditions, namely conditions concerning the value of the underlying asset until the expiration date of the contract.        
Let us give an illustrative example of a good anticipation decision. In the first case hereabove, investing 100 dollars in an underlying which goes upward to 150 dollars would make a return of 150 minus 100 divided by 100 i.e. a leverage coefficient of 0.5. In the second case, investing 20% of 100 dollars for a similar underlying asset which goes upward to 150 dollars would make a return of 150 minus 100 divided by 20, i.e. a leverage coefficient of 2.5. In the third case, good deals on the options markets can often show returns with leverage coefficients comprised between 2 and 20.
Let us keep the same example but with a wrong anticipation decision. In the first case, investing 100 dollars in an underlying which goes downward to 50 dollars would make a return of 50 minus 100 divided by 100 i.e. a leverage coefficient of minus 0.5. In the second case, investing 20% of 100 dollars for a similar underlying asset which goes downward to 50 dollars would make a return of 50 minus 100 divided by 20, i.e. a leverage coefficient of minus 2.5. In the third case, bad deals on the options markets at worst make you lose your money, i.e. a leverage coefficient of minus 1.
These existing solutions have limitations and drawbacks for the regular investor, and namely the following ones:                playing the volatility of assets gives a very limited leverage only,        playing futures or forward contracts expose the investor to a loss potentially greater than the capital needed to initiate the financial operation,        the options and warrants offers remain complex to deal with for the regular investor,        there is no offer of very high leveraged products to the regular investor, i.e. with a leverage coefficient (in the sense of the calculations hereabove) of 200, 1000 and more.        
Proposing very high leveraged products on the financial markets would have many advantages:                very high leveraged products can be traded at a very low price unit, and therefore make it possible for people to become an investor with less money and give open access to the financial markets to a broader range of people,        very high leveraged products can show very high returns if the anticipation is good, and therefore make it possible for financial operators to attract new customers with this type of product, for instance gamblers who are presently only considering making money with games of luck and without strategy,        attracting the huge amount of money spent in games of luck towards the financial markets would add risk-taking capacities to the market and, eventually, enable more listed companies to invest in many more risky projects, and namely in the innovation field,        
What is needed is a financial method to provide the regular investor with a financial product which have a far higher leverage than presently existing ones, that product being built as an option or warrant in order to limit the potential negative leverage.
Finance and Trading:Risk Coverage
Options are specific derivative securities which were originally created to enable investors who are concerned with an primary asset (such as stocks, bonds, raw material) to cover their risks of financial loss. However, in theory as well as in practise, covering risks related to an asset considerably reduces total potential gains because of high costs of risk coverage. In the best case, gains are then those you can expect from a non-risky asset such as a monetary asset. Therefore, a new type of derivative product which could notably reduce risk coverage costs would be very useful.
Moreover, financial markets are now global. Many american companies are now financed by foreign investment funds which invest in stocks. Foreign investment funds also purchase US Treasury Notes and massively finance the american public debt. But these foreign investors are then facing a double risk: first, the risk to see a decline in the value of the particular asset they purchase and, secondly, the risk to see a decline in the value of the dollar expressed in their own foreign currency. For those specific investors, a new type of derivative product which could reduce risk coverage costs would be a major issue.